Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 7.1 | 10.1% | 83 | 0.72% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 8.4 | 15.6% | 128 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 11.9 | 17.5% | 143 | 0.68% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 10.7 | 15.1% | 124 | 0.91% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 8.0 | 12% | 98 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.7 | 9.8% | 80 | 0.64% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 5.7 | 8.4% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.9 | 11.5% | 94 | 0.9% |
| All ages | 78 | 66.4 | 100% | 819 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | 28959 | 73640 | 673 | 173 | 1364 |
| Feb 05 | 29016 | 73720 | 675 | 173 | 1165 |
| Feb 06 | 29055 | 73771 | 676 | 174 | 1014 |
| Feb 07 | 29116 | 73826 | 677 | 176 | 873 |
| Feb 08 | 29219 | 73922 | 678 | 176 | 877 |
| Feb 09 | 29261 | 73991 | 678 | 176 | 850 |
| Feb 10 | 29339 | 74079 | 679 | 176 | 819 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | 18052 | 42149 | 667 | 171 | 682 |
| Feb 05 | 18097 | 42188 | 667 | 172 | 588 |
| Feb 06 | 18122 | 42216 | 667 | 172 | 530 |
| Feb 07 | 18149 | 42261 | 667 | 172 | 463 |
| Feb 08 | 18195 | 42310 | 667 | 172 | 459 |
| Feb 09 | 18230 | 42345 | 670 | 172 | 457 |
| Feb 10 | 18261 | 42399 | 671 | 172 | 445 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.4 | 10.8% | 48 | 0.62% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.0 | 8.5% | 38 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 4.9 | 14.6% | 65 | 0.91% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 7.3 | 20% | 89 | 1.06% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 5.1 | 17.1% | 76 | 0.98% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.4 | 11% | 49 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.7 | 8.3% | 37 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.7 | 9.4% | 42 | 0.59% |
| All ages | 31 | 34.6 | 100% | 445 | 0.69% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | 13040 | 28078 | 518 | 132 | 474 |
| Feb 05 | 13076 | 28111 | 519 | 132 | 424 |
| Feb 06 | 13089 | 28129 | 519 | 132 | 351 |
| Feb 07 | 13100 | 28151 | 519 | 132 | 281 |
| Feb 08 | 13124 | 28203 | 519 | 132 | 276 |
| Feb 09 | 13142 | 28233 | 519 | 132 | 258 |
| Feb 10 | 13169 | 28281 | 519 | 132 | 270 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 2.9 | 13% | 35 | 0.64% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.3 | 8.9% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.6 | 12.6% | 34 | 0.75% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.1 | 14.1% | 38 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.0 | 9.3% | 25 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.7 | 15.6% | 42 | 0.62% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 12.6% | 34 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.3 | 13.7% | 37 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 27 | 22.3 | 100% | 270 | 0.6% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | 33115 | 90175 | 964 | 159 | 1627 |
| Feb 05 | 33146 | 90248 | 968 | 160 | 1359 |
| Feb 06 | 33182 | 90292 | 968 | 160 | 1152 |
| Feb 07 | 33274 | 90420 | 969 | 160 | 1062 |
| Feb 08 | 33392 | 90579 | 970 | 160 | 1107 |
| Feb 09 | 33492 | 90676 | 976 | 161 | 1139 |
| Feb 10 | 33563 | 90766 | 977 | 161 | 1019 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 10.4 | 12.6% | 128 | 1.08% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 12.1 | 15% | 153 | 0.92% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 11.7 | 15.9% | 162 | 0.76% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 11.7 | 14.7% | 150 | 1.1% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 9.9 | 12.9% | 131 | 0.96% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 9.9 | 11.7% | 119 | 0.84% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 7.7 | 10.1% | 103 | 0.73% |
| 70+ | 4 | 6.3 | 7.2% | 73 | 0.56% |
| All ages | 71 | 79.7 | 100% | 1019 | 0.86% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | 117758 | 488420 | 2492 | 470 | 6064 |
| Feb 05 | 118058 | 488884 | 2492 | 470 | 5388 |
| Feb 06 | 118231 | 489221 | 2494 | 470 | 4642 |
| Feb 07 | 118556 | 489659 | 2498 | 470 | 4333 |
| Feb 08 | 118958 | 490310 | 2499 | 470 | 4217 |
| Feb 09 | 119359 | 490904 | 2499 | 470 | 4247 |
| Feb 10 | 119722 | 491392 | 2499 | 470 | 4186 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 56 | 61.9 | 17% | 710 | 1.18% |
| 10-19 | 56 | 59.9 | 17.4% | 730 | 1.03% |
| 20-29 | 84 | 67.7 | 20% | 837 | 0.81% |
| 30-39 | 58 | 52.6 | 15.2% | 637 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 38 | 43.7 | 12.3% | 513 | 0.78% |
| 50-59 | 37 | 28.7 | 7.6% | 319 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 22.4 | 5.9% | 246 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 12 | 16.3 | 4.6% | 193 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 363 | 353.1 | 100% | 4186 | 0.77% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | 1538485 | 4119402 | 61017 | 12840 | 53480 |
| Feb 05 | 1540965 | 4123511 | 61068 | 12847 | 46703 |
| Feb 06 | 1542328 | 4126326 | 61115 | 12861 | 39816 |
| Feb 07 | 1544714 | 4130529 | 61170 | 12867 | 35757 |
| Feb 08 | 1548126 | 4136799 | 61220 | 12874 | 34949 |
| Feb 09 | 1551122 | 4142700 | 61265 | 12877 | 35316 |
| Feb 10 | 1553551 | 4147600 | 61295 | 12877 | 33640 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 298 | 352.4 | 12.8% | 4320 | 0.67% |
| 10-19 | 296 | 334.7 | 12.9% | 4346 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 371 | 378.7 | 14.7% | 4956 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 428 | 432.9 | 16.3% | 5489 | 0.73% |
| 40-49 | 301 | 341.1 | 13.2% | 4433 | 0.63% |
| 50-59 | 311 | 323.1 | 12% | 4035 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 231 | 261.7 | 9.5% | 3185 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 192 | 229.0 | 8.4% | 2842 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 2429 | 2656.7 | 100% | 33640 | 0.58% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-03-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13775"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges